Super Lotto 6/49: the exact odds of matching 0 to 6 numbers
Short answer — Super Lotto 6/49 draws six numbers from 1 to 49. There are C(49,6) = 13,983,816 equally likely six-number combinations, so matching all six has a chance of 1 in 13,983,816. The chance of matching exactly three numbers is about 1.77% (1 in 57), and matching exactly two is about 13.24%. Those figures are our calculation from the combination counts. The jackpot odds match the table printed for this game on Wikipedia's PCSO Lottery Draw page (Wikipedia, PCSO Lottery Draw, odds of winning jackpot).
This guide shows where the numbers come from, what each match count means, and what a fixed number of combinations costs and is expected to match. It does not state prize amounts, payout rules or the result of any draw. Sources were checked on 17 October 2026.
How the count works
A combination is a set of six different numbers from 1 to 49, with the order ignored. The number of such sets is 49 × 48 × 47 × 46 × 45 × 44 ÷ 6! = 13,983,816 (our calculation). If the draw is fair and every set is equally likely, a single combination has exactly that many possible outcomes, and each outcome has the same chance.
A match count is the number of your six numbers that appear among the six drawn numbers. For each count k, the number of combinations is C(6,k) × C(43, 6−k): choose k of your numbers and 6−k of the 43 numbers you did not pick. The seven counts add up to 13,983,816, which we checked.
Chance of each match count, for one combination
| Numbers matched | Combinations | Chance (our calculation) | One in N |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6,096,454 | 43.60% | 1 in 2 |
| 1 | 5,775,588 | 41.30% | 1 in 2 |
| 2 | 1,851,150 | 13.24% | 1 in 8 |
| 3 | 246,820 | 1.77% | 1 in 57 |
| 4 | 13,545 | 0.10% | 1 in 1,032 |
| 5 | 258 | 0.001845% | 1 in 54,201 |
| Jackpot (all six) | 1 | 0.000007% | 1 in 13,983,816 |
What a fixed number of combinations means
Buying more combinations does not change the chance of any one of them matching. It only adds more tickets. If each combination has a 1.77% chance of matching at least three numbers, then 1,000 different random combinations are expected to contain about 18.6 tickets with three or more matches, and about 0.00007 tickets that match all six (our calculation, expected values for random tickets). Expected values are averages over many draws, not a forecast for the next draw.
As a hypothetical cost example, 1,000 combinations at ₱25 each would cost ₱25,000. The ticket price used here is the one stated on Wikipedia's PCSO page for these games, so check the current price with PCSO before you rely on it. The example shows cost and chance only; it does not show what any winning tier pays.
Limits of this calculation
This calculation assumes a fair draw with six different numbers from 1 to 49, and that every combination is equally likely. It does not check the actual draw machine, the schedule, the ticket rules or the prize table. If PCSO changes a rule, the counts above stay the same for the rule as described here, but the cost and the prize structure may differ.
Verified, calculated and not verified
Verified from a published reference: the game is listed on Wikipedia's PCSO Lottery Draw page, and its printed jackpot odds for Super Lotto 6/49 are 1 in 13,983,816 for the straight bet (Wikipedia, PCSO Lottery Draw).
Our calculation: the seven match counts, the chance and one-in-N columns, the expected counts for 1,000 combinations, and the log-scale chart.
Not verified: the current official ticket price, the prize amounts for each tier, the draw schedule, and any age rule. Check PCSO's official pages before you play.
Before you play
Set a budget before you buy, and check the current rules with PCSO. Only adults should play. A one-in-N chance tells you the long-run frequency, not what will happen in the next draw, and a combination that did not win before has no better chance in the next draw.
Sources (checked 17 October 2026): Wikipedia — PCSO Lottery Draw. The combination counts, chances, one-in-N values, expected values and chart are our own calculation.